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There's a lot of money at stake in this year's census. How will your town fare?

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Census Hard to Count

This Dec. 5, 2019, photo shows the Detroit skyline. An Associated Press analysis finds that Detroit tops the list of cities that will be hardest to count in the 2020 census. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

When the U.S. Census Bureau starts counting people this year in Detroit, obstacles are bound to arise: The city has tens of thousands of vacant houses, sparse internet access and high poverty — factors that will make it the toughest community to tally.

Other Rust Belt towns that have lost population and cities in the Sun Belt with large numbers of immigrants and transplants will pose similar challenges in the coast-to-coast headcount, an Associated Press analysis of government data found. Nationwide, about a quarter of the population lives in hard-to-count neighborhoods, including a majority of people in Atlanta, Cleveland, Dallas, Los Angeles, Milwaukee, Memphis, Tennessee, and Fresno, California.

Obtaining an accurate count is critical because the census determines the allocation of $1.5 trillion in federal spending and decides which states gain or lose congressional seats.

Census Hard to Count

In this Nov. 22, 2019, photo, Detroit 2020 Census Campaign executive director Victoria Kovari looks over a Detroit map showing city neighborhoods that were under-counted in the 2010 census. In 2010, 220,000 Detroit residents were living in households that did not fill out questionnaires, costing the city $2,000 to $5,000 annually for every uncounted person, said Kovari. (AP Photo/Corey Williams)

“There is nothing more important, no higher priority, than reaching the hard to count,” Census Bureau Director Steven Dillingham told lawmakers last summer.

Nationwide, the Census Bureau predicts a 60.5% response rate.

To get those numbers back up, city census teams have knocked on nearly 130,000 doors in neighborhoods that were under-counted in the last census and spoken with more than 26,000 people. But Kovari is still concerned. For the first time, the Census Bureau would like respondents to answer questions online, but the agency estimates that 30% of Detroit households lack regular connection to the internet, roughly double the national percentage.

The Census Bureau sends workers to homes that don't respond. Almost 80 percent of Detroit is African American, and observers “know we are going to have an undercount among the black population,” said Diana Elliott, an Urban Institute researcher who co-wrote a report last summer that estimated anywhere from 900,000 to 4 million people could be missed.

Census Hard to Count

In this Nov. 5, 2019, photo, Charles Jones Jr. stands outside his house in Detroit. He says he will participate in the census and hopes his neighbors make sure they are counted. “You just can’t walk and knock on somebody’s door, now,” said Jones Jr. “You’ve got to find somebody in the neighborhood that the people trust. Not strangers. They’re scared of strangers.” (AP Photo/Corey Williams)

Researchers have learned that Latinos, African Americans, non-English-speaking immigrants and children under 5 are the hardest to count, along with tribal members, nontraditional families and people with informal living arrangements.

Experts say the Trump administration’s effort to put a citizenship question on the questionnaire may scare off immigrants who live here illegally and others. Although the effort failed, opponents of the question say damage has already been done.

California and New Mexico have some of the nation’s largest concentrations of Latinos. In those states, over 40 percent of the population lives in hard-to-count neighborhoods.

By contrast, Vermont, Maine and West Virginia have some of the highest concentrations of white residents and older people, who are more likely to fill out census forms. There, less than 5% of the population lives in hard-to-count neighborhoods.

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To tout the importance of the 2020 census, California is spending an estimated $187 million on advertising and events and recruiting neighborhood leaders to encourage participation. California census officials have hired liaisons whose sole focus is 15 specific hard-to-count groups, including farm workers, the homeless and people without broadband subscriptions.

“You really have to understand the structural barriers that exist,” said Ditas Katague, director of the California Complete Count-Census 2020 Office.

Census Hard to Count

In this Nov. 5, 2019, photo, Annette Brock, who plans to be counted in the 2020 census, talks in Detroit. “I don’t blame nobody if they don’t want to participate, or if they don’t want to help, or if they don’t want to say nothing no more," Brock said. "They’re tired of speaking their mind.” (AP Photo/Corey Williams)

Gathering accurate population data in Detroit can be daunting because of its size and the emptiness of some neighborhoods. The city was almost bursting its limits through the 1950s, until good-paying auto and other manufacturing jobs allowed a burgeoning white middle class to find bigger homes and better schools in the suburbs. Years of housing discrimination made it harder for the city’s black residents to leave.

Census Hard to Count

In this Nov. 5, 2019, photo, Edith Floyd works in a community garden in Detroit. Floyd understands why being counted in the 2020 census matters. “We need all the money we can get for the city and for ourselves,” Floyd said. “There’s very few people over here, and everybody counts. Everybody needs to participate.” (AP Photo/Corey Williams)

Edith Floyd understands why being counted matters. Working in a community garden, the 70-year-old digs up dirt for composting and makes winter preparations for greens and other crops still in the ground. A cold, stiff breeze blows across scores of vacant lots, broken by the few homes that have withstood time and busy bulldozers leveling vacant structures.

“We need all the money we can get for the city and for ourselves,” Floyd said. “There’s very few people over here, and everybody counts. Everybody needs to participate.”

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